Most contracts have an incumbent. Most agencies prefer to keep them. So why bother bidding? Because roughly 30% of recompetes flip. That's tens of billions of dollars annually in contracts the incumbent loses. With the right strategy, those dollars can be yours.
Step 1: Find Recompetes Before Anyone Else
The earlier you start, the better your odds. Use GovSeeker's FPDS intelligence to find contracts in your NAICS expiring in 12-18 months. Filter by agency, dollar value, and incumbent.
Don't wait for the Sources Sought notice. By then, the incumbent has already locked in their proposal team and the agency has often been pre-sold.
Step 2: Read the Incumbent's CPARS
CPARS (Contractor Performance Assessment Reports) are public for federal contracts over $1M. They tell you how the agency feels about the incumbent. Look for:
- "Marginal" or "Unsatisfactory" ratings — opportunity
- Comments about cost overruns or schedule slips — opportunity
- Multiple "Exceptional" ratings — much harder to displace
Step 3: Talk to the COR (Yes, Really)
Contracting Officer Representatives can take meetings before the solicitation drops. Reach out professionally — not to pitch, but to ask informed questions about technical needs, mission goals, or pain points. Listen more than you talk. This is market research the agency expects.
Step 4: Identify the Incumbent's Weakness
Every incumbent has a weakness. Common ones:
- Stale tech stack — they've been using the same approach for 5 years
- Cost creep — they're billing more than the agency budgeted
- Talent attrition — key personnel left, agency feels the impact
- Subcontracting compliance — they missed small-biz subcontracting goals
Build your win theme around fixing the incumbent's specific weakness, not just claiming you're "better."
Step 5: Hire the Incumbent's People
It's legal, common, and devastatingly effective. When the incumbent loses key personnel to your team, you instantly gain past performance, agency relationships, and tribal knowledge. The agency knows the work will continue smoothly.
Step 6: Bid Aggressively, Not Suicidally
Recompetes often go to the lower bid. But underbidding by 30% raises red flags about your ability to perform. A 5-12% price advantage with clear technical value is the sweet spot.
Step 7: Prepare for the Protest
If you win a recompete, the incumbent may protest. Build a clean, well-documented proposal that can survive GAO review — no shortcuts, no missing requirements, every claim sourced.
Start tracking recompetes with GovSeeker's automated FPDS analysis and AI-powered competitive intelligence.